PETER SHANKMAN

Looking at the World Through T3 Colored Glasses

In 1995 when I was helping to found the AOL Newsroom, I coined a phrase:

Stop looking at the world through T3 colored glasses.

A T3 line was one of the fastest pipes to transmit data at the time, and AOL being AOL, we sat right on top of about 100 of them. You could follow our lines right to the ocean, in fact.

So when we would build massive news modules (Pictures of the Week, for example) they would look truly lovely on our screens, loading in at the speed of light.

Problem was, they only looked lovely for us. For the majority of the world using AOL back then, it didn’t look anywhere near as nice.

Most people were on modems at the time, and on average, were getting about 28.8k throughput. (If they were lucky.) Imagine dialing up today? You’d shoot yourself in the head before your first you-tube video even finished playing.

For the majority of AOL users, here’s what they got when they went to one of our awesome new modules:

Please wait. Downloading Artwork. 1% completed.”

And they’d wait. And wait. And wait.

We weren’t paying attention to the user, because we had such a fast connection. Billy Joe, in his trailer in the south, didn’t. And we got complaints.

Today, it seems that nothing’s changed. A new report from Forrester suggests that nearly 84% of people have no idea what services like Foursquare or Gowalla are.

New tech adoption takes time. Just because we use it every day, doesn’t mean the masses do. And if the masses don’t, how are those sites going to generate revenue and profit?

Don’t go screaming into your boss’s office about how Foursquare will change the world, just because “you and all your friends” use it.

While I still believe Foursquare will win, it’s going to take some time. I’d hate to see you blow a giant marketing budget (and worse, your boss or client’s trust in you) because you’re putting all your eggs into a basket that has yet to hatch.

Or, to put it another way, just because we’re geeks, hang out with geeks, and like geeky things, doesn’t mean our audience, clients, or those who pay the bills do, yet.

Use the tech – incorporate it into plans and make it components of your marketing. But judge your audience, as well, and remember that they’ll take a bit longer than you will to adopt and adapt.

August 2nd, 2010 08:58 AM
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Don’t you think it’s a bit ironic in the first place that Forrester has finally decided to jump into social media over a year after Owyang left?

It seems that they’re a bit behind the curve and ousted their best bet at producing solid research and understanding on how new media will gain mass adoption.

Give LBS 2-3 years and it will be everywhere. Question is, will Foursquare still be sitting on top…

August 2nd, 2010 08:54 AM
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SO TRUE, Peter.

Much like the “huge” monitors that allowed a “whopping” 800×600 resolution, when most people were still working with 640×480. I followed a thread in a web page forum for a few weeks as people argued back and forth about working with the lowest common denominator versus going forward with the new size. This was all back before CSS and fluid widths, of course.

Whenever developing a product, one has to carefully consider the target market and what resources are available to them. The newest gee whiz wowzer toys won’t mean a thing if people can not use them.

August 2nd, 2010 09:06 AM
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Good point — but for startups, the trick is often to look ahead and as Wayne Gretzky would say “skate to where the puck is going”. In your example, as broadband was gaining wider option, if a company had limited its features/capabilities based on users having dial-up access, they would have likely been left behind too.

But you’re right. You should be realistic about where the market is today — with an eye towards where it’s heading.

August 2nd, 2010 11:58 AM
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Couldn’t agree more.

The Forrester report didn’t surprise me one bit – location-based services are still bleeding-edge from a marketing perspective. That means they have, at very best, niche appeal and that the best that marketing folks can generally hope for at this stage is to learn lessons from experimenting.

Anyone who invests more than a fraction of their budget into tools at the sharp end of the wedge (and let’s face it, most social media tools still sit there) needs to be prepared to learn a lot but deliver few business results.

August 2nd, 2010 11:40 AM
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Great post Peter

Too often the designers of websites and technology fail to take into account the average Joe. Think Automatic Call Systems most big companies have.

And one thing the internet has not fixed is data speeds. I have Broadband and still YouTube and many streaming videos stutter. As we have gained greater data speeds the data volume has kept up pace. We all know AAC and MP3 are poor excuses for sound quality. But I need 2000GB of hard drive for me to realistically switch back to the fuller .wav or similar file. And imagine the pipe needed for each online streaming song to be 70mb vs 7mb.

The bad thing about the marketing industry is everyone markets. Its all T3 colored glasses. Go to Wall Street talk to a stock analyst. Marketer will say 4mil people now on Four Square in a year! That is awesome. Stock analyst – at that rate everyone in the US will be on it in 62years. Marketer 450mil active Facebook accounts. Stock analyst – only 40mil people world wide are doing something on Facebook each day world wide, and your business model is advertising?

I think glass is half full except when it clouds reality.

August 3rd, 2010 01:04 AM
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This is a fantastic post on understanding your whole market and valuing their perspective. I appreciate that you connected it to a situation in your past that most readers can relate to. As an early adopter (read: Geek) it’s easy to forget that the masses still watch commercials instead of fast forwarding their DVR and don’t get the Mayor discount at their local Starbucks.

August 7th, 2010 07:22 PM
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Great advice Peter. Everyone needs to slow down and give the not only foursquare but the entire location-space some time to mature.

August 9th, 2010 01:46 AM
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“Billy Joe, in his trailer in the south?”

I guess the assumption is that no one of interest would be able to read this below the Mason-Dixon line. Probably better that way, I hear most people there can barely spell compound words, let alone fire up Tweet Deck. Must be a jungle, glad I live somewhere more civilized :)

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